Quick answer
Possivel means it can happen. Provavel means it is likely to happen.
A reliable test is to identify the job of the word before translating from English.
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What each word does
provavel
probable or likely
Use provavel for something expected to happen or judged likely.
possivel
possible
Use possivel for something that can happen, even if it is not likely.
How to choose
- provavel: Choose provavel if the sentence points to something expected to happen or judged likely.
- possivel: Choose possivel if the sentence points to something that can happen, even if it is not likely.
Examples
E provavel que chova.
It is likely to rain.
E possivel chegar a tempo.
It is possible to arrive on time.
Common trap
Do not use provavel just because something is possible; provavel needs likelihood.
Practice it in context
Pick one sentence from your real life and write it twice: once with provavel, then once with possivel. If both versions feel possible, name the meaning shift.
Learn Brazilian Portuguese step by step
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